Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 49.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Raheem Mostert has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a measly 61.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile.