Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+230/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -325.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 48.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (86.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (86.6%).
The New York Jets safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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