Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 51.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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