Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a high 50.1% Route Participation Rate (84th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert has been among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.
Raheem Mostert's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 80.0% to 84.2%.
Raheem Mostert's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, accumulating 6.67 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 5.64 mark last year.
Raheem Mostert's skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, averaging 11.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.10 figure last year.
This year, the shaky Jets defense has surrendered the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a staggering 7.66 YAC.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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