Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
With an elite 51.8% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert ranks among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the NFL.
Raheem Mostert has compiled a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
Raheem Mostert's pass-game efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 5.64 figure last season.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-fewest in football.

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