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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, giving up 7.15 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.

The New England Patriots pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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