Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 2:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
In this week's contest, Raheem Mostert is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 14.3 carries.
Raheem Mostert has earned 59.2% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-least run-focused offense in the NFL (36.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

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