Rachaad White Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rachaad White Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects Rachaad White to accrue 15.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Rachaad White has been a more integral piece of his offense's ground game this year (57.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.7%).
Rachaad White's 47.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a significant progression in his running prowess over last season's 30.0 mark.
This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts run defense has yielded a whopping 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.
With a very bad tally of 3.31 adjusted yards per carry (12th percentile) this year, Rachaad White places among the bottom pure runners in football at the position.