Rachaad White Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Rachaad White Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
Rachaad White's 70.5% Route% this year conveys a a material improvement in his passing attack usage over last year's 32.7% mark.
Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to accrue 3.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
Since the start of last season, the daunting Lions defense has yielded a meager 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.