Rachaad White Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Rachaad White Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
Rachaad White's 69.3% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a remarkable improvement in his pass game utilization over last year's 32.7% mark.
The predictive model expects Rachaad White to total 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
When talking about air yards, Rachaad White ranks in the measly 17th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -2.0 per game.
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Rachaad White has been as one of the top pass-game RBs in the NFL in the open field.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against running backs this year, surrendering 5.36 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.