Quez Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Quez Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+366/-733).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +390 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +366.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.5% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Quez Watkins's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.0% to 77.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Quez Watkins has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
Quez Watkins's 19.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 36.1.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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