Quez Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Quez Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+406/-875).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -751 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -875.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (11.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Quez Watkins's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 71.3% to 79.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Quez Watkins has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Quez Watkins's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 33.9.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.50 per game this year.

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