Quentin Johnston Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Quentin Johnston grades out as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 59.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 25th percentile among wideouts
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.5%) to wideouts this year (61.5%).
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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