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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions

Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Quentin Johnston to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack this week (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).

The Lions safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

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