Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
While Quentin Johnston has been responsible for 7.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's passing attack in this week's contest at 13.3%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
With a subpar 11.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (17th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston ranks as one of the bottom WRs in the NFL in the league.
Quentin Johnston has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 51.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among WRs
With a bad 4.1 adjusted yards per target (12th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston ranks among the worst wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.