Puka Nacua Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 23, 2026 7:47 PM EST

Analysis

Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-488).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (24.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.6% in games he has played).
In regards to air yards, Puka Nacua ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 93.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams rank as the 4th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 60.0% red zone run rate.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Since the start of last season, the tough Denver Broncos defense has yielded a puny 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Denver Broncos defense has conceded a puny 0.37 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the lowest rate in the league.
The Denver defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.