Puka Nacua Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Puka Nacua Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+101/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.6% in games he has played).
As it relates to air yards, Puka Nacua grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging an astounding 93.0 per game.
Puka Nacua's 67.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
Puka Nacua ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football, catching an exceptional 79.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
With a fantastic ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (95th percentile), Puka Nacua places among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Rams are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
The Los Angeles Rams have been the most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 77.8% red zone run rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Rams to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Rams profiles as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Giants run defense has been gouged for a whopping 1.22 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in football.