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P.J. Walker TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-196/+152).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +152.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.Phillip Walker has attempted a mere 13.9 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 14th percentile among QBs.Phillip Walker has been among the worst TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrible 0.38 per game while grading out in the 10th percentile.The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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