P.J. Walker TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

P.J. Walker

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

P.J. Walker TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback P.J. Walker in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Carolina Panthers have incorporated play action on a lowly 23.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.