Phillip Dorsett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+111/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the weakest WRs in the league this year, averaging a mere 1.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 13th percentile among WRs.

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