Phillip Dorsett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, surrendering 7.45 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.

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