Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+421/-935).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -853 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -935.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Dorsett to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (10.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.6% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (68.8%) to wide receivers this year (68.8%).
The Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 43.3% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile among WRs

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