Pharaoh Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Pharaoh Brown

NFL · Player Props

Pharaoh Brown

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 10:02 AM EST

Analysis

Pharaoh Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1983/-2400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Colts, who are big -10-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has allowed a mere 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 8th-smallest rate in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see only 126.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.
When talking about air yards, Pharaoh Brown grades out in the lowly 1st percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing just 0.0 per game.
Pharaoh Brown's 1.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the league: 10th percentile for tight ends.

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