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Pharaoh Brown

Pharaoh Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Pharaoh Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Pharaoh Brown has been on the field for 64.4% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Pharaoh Brown has been among the weakest pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 13.0 yards per game while checking in at the 19th percentile among tight ends.

Pharaoh Brown has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a measly 4.95 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

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