Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 10:37 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+398/-489).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chiefs as the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (59.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 58.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Raiders, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) since the start of last season.
While Patrick Mahomes has garnered 0.0% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's running game near the goal line in this contest at 14.8%.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.29 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (95th percentile).
Since the start of last season, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders run defense has yielded a staggering 1.20 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.