Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+396/-490).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -490.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been one of the leading TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.69 per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have only 121.5 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to pass too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.2 per game) since the start of last season.
Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest (15.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).
Patrick Mahomes has run for 0.31 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among QBs (95th percentile).