Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
With an excellent rate of 1.60 per game (88th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the leading touchdown passers in football since the start of last season.
The Colts safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.10 seconds per play) will boast the 4th-fastest tempo on the slate this week.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.5.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's ground game near the end zone in this game (21.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.8% in games he has played).

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