Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+733/-770).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (65.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the NFL.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football last year.
With an impressive rate of 1.57 per game (88th percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been as one of the leading touchdown passers in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has run for 0.29 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (92nd percentile).
Last year, the daunting Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a puny 1.06 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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