Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 8:12 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chiefs as the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (59.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 58.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Raiders, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) since the start of last season.