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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the projection model to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.6.

The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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