My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.40 per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes's passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 63.4%.

Since the start of last season, the formidable New York Jets defense has surrendered a measly 68.1% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

The Jets defense has given up the 2nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™