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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 38.8 passes per game this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year, the formidable 49ers defense has given up a feeble 1.21 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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