Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-235/+175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -230 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (66.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the model to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.4.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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