Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in football: 0.67 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.