Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing TDs in football: 0.93 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.