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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target passers in football this year with a terrific 66.5% Completion%, grading out in the 76th percentile.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 2.80 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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