Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.