Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 10th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.