Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 10:12 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-131/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 128.6 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 58.4 plays per game.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 3.7 carries per game since the start of last season, one of the highest rates in football among quarterbacks (79th percentile).
With a stellar rate of 22.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (81st percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 10th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this season (9.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.1%).
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's group of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.