Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 17.1% of his offense's run game usage last year, placing him in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest figures in football among quarterbacks (85th percentile).

Favors Under

This week, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by the predictive model to garner the fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 4.2.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 90.0 per game) versus the Broncos defense last year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Denver's collection of DTs has been fantastic last year, profiling as the 10th-best in football.