Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite in this game.
While Patrick Mahomes has garnered 15.0% of his team's run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Kansas City's running game in this week's game at 21.4%.
Patrick Mahomes has generated 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among QBs (82nd percentile).
Patrick Mahomes's running effectiveness (7.07 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (100th percentile among quarterbacks).
Since the start of last season, the strong Bengals run defense has allowed a paltry 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 27th-smallest rate in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to call only 62.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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