Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
Patrick Mahomes's running efficiency has improved this season, averaging 7.96 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 7.12 mark last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 33.4% run rate.
Patrick Mahomes has been a much smaller piece of his team's ground game this year (9.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.6%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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