Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to accrue 5.7 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 23.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (76th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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