Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to run the ball, comprising 14.7% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Patrick Mahomes's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks an impressive boost in his rushing talent over last year's 21.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes's 8.07 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a material improvement in his rushing prowess over last year's 7.01 rate.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has been gouged for a staggering 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 31st-biggest rate in the league.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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