Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to notch 4.9 carries in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (20.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's running effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a mere 6.66 yards-per-carry compared to a 7.45 rate last season.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 0.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 13th percentile.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 76 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.