Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:45 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+113/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (16.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.6% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 5.98 yards-per-carry compared to a 7.45 rate last year.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best DE corps in football this year with their run defense.