Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 15, 2022 11:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (16.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.0% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions in this game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.