Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+273/-472).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +379 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +273.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (12.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best DE corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.