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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+273/-472).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +379 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +273.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (12.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.6% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best DE corps in football this year with their run defense.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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