Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+421/-933).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -754 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -933.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (9.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 34.9% red zone run rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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