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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+416/-913).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +416.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 34.1% red zone run rate.

Opposing squads have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.60 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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